← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 14, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Bastian Dankert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 73% | 76% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 12% | 6.25 | fair |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 12% | 12% | 8.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen +1.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| FC Bayern München +1.75 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 73% | 65% | 1.30 | fair |
| Under | 27% | 35% | 3.50 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ (pen) | Harry Kane · FC Bayern München |
| 25' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · FC Bayern München |
| 28' | 🟨 | Senne Lynen · SV Werder Bremen |
| 37' | 🟨 | Niklas Stark · SV Werder Bremen |
| 70' | ⚽ | Leon Goretzka · FC Bayern München |
| 80' | 🟨 | Jamal Musiala · FC Bayern München |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cameron Puertas · SV Werder Bremen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 6 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Werder Bremen | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Weserstadion |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 197.00 | 593.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.07 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1612.35 | 2018.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.86 | -13.17 |
| eye test v1 | 0.24 | 2.67 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | -0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 2.12 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 2.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.71 |
| league points | 19.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 89.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 65.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 2.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.20 | 18.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.87 | 2.64 |
| solidity v1 | 0.58 | -0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 9.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 9.40 |
| squad age | — | 28.25 |
| state index | -0.51 | 1.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.38 | 0.92 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 1.73 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 3.19 |