← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Feb 8, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Stieler, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 79% | 73% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 17% | 8.00 | value: +34% |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 9% | 10% | 10.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München −2 | 53% | 1.78 |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim −2 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 78% | 71% | 1.22 | fair |
| Under | 22% | 29% | 4.33 | value: +25% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Alexander Prass · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 13' | 🟨 | Michael Olise · FC Bayern München |
| 17' | 🟥 | Kevin Akpoguma · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 20' | ⚽ (pen) | Harry Kane · FC Bayern München |
| 35' | ⚽ | Andrej Kramarić · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 44' | 🟨 | Leon Avdullahu · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Harry Kane · FC Bayern München |
| 45' | ⚽ | Luis Díaz · FC Bayern München |
| 57' | 🟨 | Jonathan Tah · FC Bayern München |
| 62' | ⚽ | Luis Díaz · FC Bayern München |
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 27 | Shots | 9 |
| 14 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| 89' | ⚽ | Luis Díaz · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 587.00 | 464.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.53 |
| elo | 2013.38 | 1748.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.47 | 64.26 |
| eye test v1 | 2.17 | 0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 1.69 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.82 |
| league points | 51.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 90.20 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 8.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 2.55 | 2.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 2.43 | 0.32 |
| solidity v1 | -0.10 | 0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 28.08 | 25.81 |
| state index | 1.39 | 1.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.48 | -0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.59 | 1.23 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.65 | 1.66 |