← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Feb 8, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Frank Willenborg, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 48% | 44% | 2.00 | fair |
| 1. FC Köln win | 28% | 30% | 3.40 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | 3.90 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln +0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| RB Leipzig +0.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 64% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 36% | 2.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ | Christoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig |
| 51' | ⚽ | Jan Thielmann · 1. FC Köln |
| 56' | ⚽ | Christoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig |
| 58' | 🟨 | Jan Thielmann · 1. FC Köln |
| 76' | 🟨 | David Raum · RB Leipzig |
| 76' | 🟨 | Christoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig |
| 90' | 🟨 | Péter Gulácsi · RB Leipzig |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ezechiel Banzuzi · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 19 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.86 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| venue | RheinEnergieStadion |
| coach days | 283.00 | 344.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 3.48 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1586.02 | 1758.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.28 | -9.51 |
| eye test v1 | 0.52 | 0.89 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 66.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.69 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| league points | 23.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 60.80 |
| rest days | 8.79 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.10 | 1.31 |
| solidity v1 | -0.82 | -0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 25.50 | 27.16 |
| state index | 0.28 | 0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.16 | 0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.67 | 1.89 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.69 | 1.87 |