← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Feb 1, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Matthias Jollenbeck, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 74% | 77% | 1.27 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 18% | 6.50 | value: +14% |
| Heidenheim win | 11% | 6% | 8.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heidenheim −1.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Borussia Dortmund −1.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 69% | 1.40 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 31% | 3.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | 🟨 | Mathias Honsak · Heidenheim |
| 44' | ⚽ | Waldemar Anton · Borussia Dortmund |
| 45' | ⚽ | Julian Niehues · Heidenheim |
| 48' | ⚽ | Julian Niehues · Heidenheim |
| 49' | 🟨 | Waldemar Anton · Borussia Dortmund |
| 64' | 🟨 | Julian Niehues · Heidenheim |
| 68' | ⚽ (pen) | Serhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund |
| 69' | ⚽ | Serhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gregor Kobel · Borussia Dortmund |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 12 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Signal Iduna Park |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 365.00 | 6728.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 3.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1835.06 | 1514.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.78 | -13.01 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.57 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 53.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.56 |
| league points | 42.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 39.20 |
| rest days | 3.85 | 8.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.21 | 0.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.39 | -0.81 |
| solidity v1 | 0.41 | -2.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.09 | — |
| state index | 0.86 | -0.78 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | -1.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 2.28 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.74 | 1.29 |