← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 31, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Harm Osmers, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 73% | 69% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 19% | 6.50 | value: +25% |
| Hamburger SV win | 13% | 12% | 7.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV +1.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| FC Bayern München +1.75 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 61% | 1.40 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 39% | 3.00 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Nicolai Remberg · Hamburger SV |
| 34' | ⚽ (pen) | Fábio Vieira · Hamburger SV |
| 42' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · FC Bayern München |
| 46' | ⚽ | Luis Díaz · FC Bayern München |
| 53' | ⚽ | Luka Vušković · Hamburger SV |
| 55' | 🟨 | Miro Muheim · Hamburger SV |
| 57' | 🟨 | Kim Min-jae · FC Bayern München |
| 75' | 🟨 | Albert Sambi Lokonga · Hamburger SV |
| 85' | 🟨 | Giorgi Gocholeishvili · Hamburger SV |
| 87' | 🟨 | Harry Kane · FC Bayern München |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.51 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| 90' |
| 🟨 |
| Nicolás Capaldo · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daniel Heuer Fernandes · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München |
| 90' | 🟨 | Michael Olise · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0.20 |
| coach days | 456.00 | 579.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 2.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1571.85 | 2021.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.19 | 2.56 |
| eye test v1 | 0.19 | 2.58 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 2.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 2.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.66 |
| league points | 18.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 90.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 68.40 |
| rest days | 7.92 | 2.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 18.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.27 | 2.72 |
| solidity v1 | 0.19 | 0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 8.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 8.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 9.40 |
| squad age | — | 26.51 |
| state index | -0.15 | 1.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.18 | 1.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 1.35 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.87 | 3.06 |