← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 31, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Schlager, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 62% | 59% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 23% | 4.75 | value: +9% |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 18% | 18% | 5.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig −1 | 52% | 1.85 |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 −1 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 64% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 36% | 2.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | 🟨 | Stefan Bell · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 40' | ⚽ | Conrad Harder · RB Leipzig |
| 45' | 🟨 | Stefan Posch · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Nadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 49' | ⚽ | Silas · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nelson Weiper · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kacper Potulski · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 4 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.54 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.81 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 |
| venue | Red Bull Arena |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 336.00 | 214.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.48 | 4.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1773.33 | 1653.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.12 | 2.27 |
| eye test v1 | 1.14 | 0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | 0.66 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.20 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.78 |
| league points | 36.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 3.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.12 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 0.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.07 | -0.23 |
| solidity v1 | -0.97 | -0.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 27.10 | 26.30 |
| state index | 0.63 | 0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | -0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.97 | 1.60 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.88 | 1.77 |