← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 31, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Robin Braun, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 52% | 56% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.80 | fair |
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 23% | 24% | 4.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| 1. FC Union Berlin −0.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 55% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 45% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Albian Hajdari · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 21' | 🟨 | Stanley N'Soki · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 42' | ⚽ (pen) | Andrej Kramarić · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 45' | ⚽ | Andrej Kramarić · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 47' | ⚽ (og) | Diogo Leite · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 57' | 🟨 | Andrej Ilić · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 68' | ⚽ | Rani Khedira · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 84' | 🟨 | Alexander Prass · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 10 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 1. FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | PreZero Arena |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 456.00 | 426.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1740.69 | 1616.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 60.51 | 6.07 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.70 | 64.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.71 |
| league points | 39.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 3.79 | 6.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 2.05 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| solidity v1 | 0.86 | 0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.81 | — |
| state index | 1.44 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | -0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 1.16 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 1.77 |