← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 24, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Siebert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 42% | 43% | 2.25 | fair |
| Wolfsburg win | 30% | 28% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg −0.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 52% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 48% | 1.93 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Mohamed Amoura · Wolfsburg |
| 33' | 🟨 | Stefan Posch · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 60' | 🟨 | Patrick Wimmer · Wolfsburg |
| 68' | ⚽ | Phillip Tietz · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 70' | 🟨 | Vinícius Souza · Wolfsburg |
| 73' | ⚽ | Stefan Bell · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 83' | ⚽ (pen) | Nadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 86' | 🟨 | Dominik Kohr · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Stefan Bell · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 7 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 15 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.61 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Mewa Arena |
| coach days | 207.00 | 176.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 3.29 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1641.69 | 1616.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.13 | 8.80 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.83 | -0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.62 |
| league points | 12.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.65 | 0.49 |
| solidity v1 | 0.06 | -1.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.30 | 26.01 |
| state index | 0.28 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.63 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.90 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 1.51 |