← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Jan 18, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Martin Petersen, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 37% | 33% | 2.55 | fair |
| SC Freiburg win | 34% | 35% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg +0 | 53% | 1.83 |
| SC Freiburg +0 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 48% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 52% | 2.00 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 47' | ⚽ | Alexis Claude-Maurice · FC Augsburg |
| 49' | ⚽ | Elvis Rexhbeçaj · FC Augsburg |
| 53' | 🟨 | Yannik Keitel · FC Augsburg |
| 54' | 🟨 | Johan Manzambi · SC Freiburg |
| 57' | 🟨 | Noahkai Banks · FC Augsburg |
| 60' | ⚽ | Yuito Suzuki · SC Freiburg |
| 62' | 🟨 | Michael Gregoritsch · FC Augsburg |
| 62' | ⚽ | Igor Matanović · SC Freiburg |
| 82' | 🟨 | Yuito Suzuki · SC Freiburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| coach days | 382.00 | 566.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 3.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1578.98 | 1721.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.83 | 11.34 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | 0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.66 |
| league points | 15.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 3.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.14 | 0.83 |
| solidity v1 | 0.20 | -0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| state index | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.38 | -0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 1.23 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 2.13 |