← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 17, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Sascha Stegemann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 55% | 54% | 1.73 | fair |
| RB Leipzig win | 24% | 20% | 4.00 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 26% | 4.33 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München +0.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
| RB Leipzig +0.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 75% | 1.36 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 25% | 3.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Rômulo · RB Leipzig |
| 29' | 🟨 | Nicolas Seiwald · RB Leipzig |
| 50' | ⚽ | Serge Gnabry · FC Bayern München |
| 67' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · FC Bayern München |
| 82' | ⚽ | Jonathan Tah · FC Bayern München |
| 85' | ⚽ | Aleksandar Pavlovic · FC Bayern München |
| 88' | ⚽ | Michael Olise · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 19 |
| 4 | On target | 12 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 7 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.51 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Red Bull Arena |
| 0.40 |
| coach days | 322.00 | 565.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.24 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| elo | 1779.05 | 2021.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.50 | 10.13 |
| eye test v1 | 0.91 | 3.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.53 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.10 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 2.11 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 2.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.76 |
| league points | 32.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 90.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 71.60 |
| rest days | 2.92 | 2.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 2.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 11.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 20.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.14 | 3.11 |
| solidity v1 | 0.61 | 1.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.70 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 9.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 10.20 |
| squad age | 28.41 | 29.00 |
| state index | 1.06 | 2.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.17 | 1.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 0.92 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.89 | 3.46 |