← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 17, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Welz, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 57% | 55% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 25% | 4.10 | fair |
| Heidenheim win | 20% | 20% | 4.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg −0.75 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Heidenheim −0.75 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 59% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 41% | 2.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Maximilian Arnold · Wolfsburg |
| 26' | 🟨 | Marnon Busch · Heidenheim |
| 29' | 🟨 | Niklas Dorsch · Heidenheim |
| 45' | ⚽ | Adrian Beck · Heidenheim |
| 57' | 🟨 | Jonas Föhrenbach · Heidenheim |
| 59' | 🟨 | Christian Eriksen · Wolfsburg |
| 68' | 🟨 | Kevin Paredes · Wolfsburg |
| 80' | ⚽ | Moritz Jenz · Wolfsburg |
| 89' | 🟨 | Jesper Lindstrøm · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| coach days | 169.00 | 6713.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 3.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1684.19 | 1579.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.58 | -3.64 |
| eye test v1 | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 50.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.55 |
| league points | 18.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 3.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.10 | 0.26 |
| solidity v1 | -1.89 | -1.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.15 | 27.03 |
| state index | 0.24 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.24 | -0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.09 | 2.12 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.49 | 1.82 |