β Bundesliga 2025-26 Β· Sat, Jan 17, 02:30 PM UTC Β· ref: Daniel Schlager, Germany
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 41% | 37% | 2.35 | fair |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 34% | 33% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 30% | 3.80 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen β0.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim β0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 64% | 64% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 36% | 2.63 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand