← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 17, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Felix Zwayer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 45% | 46% | 2.10 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 27% | 25% | 3.50 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln −0.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 −0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 51% | 1.85 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 49% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Eric Martel · 1. FC Köln |
| 29' | ⚽ | Stefan Bell · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 43' | 🟨 | Jae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 57' | ⚽ | Ragnar Ache · 1. FC Köln |
| 61' | 🟨 | Silvan Widmer · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 72' | 🟨 | Marius Bülter · 1. FC Köln |
| 72' | 🟨 | Said El Mala · 1. FC Köln |
| 72' | 🟨 | Phillip Tietz · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 72' | 🟨 | Daniel Batz · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 85' | ⚽ | Ragnar Ache · 1. FC Köln |
| 87' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 6 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | RheinEnergieStadion |
| 🟨 |
| Tom Krauß · 1. FC Köln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 261.00 | 200.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1571.08 | 1652.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.23 | 19.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.42 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.40 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.81 |
| league points | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 39.80 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 3.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.12 | -1.07 |
| solidity v1 | -0.29 | -0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.50 | 26.30 |
| state index | -0.56 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | -1.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 2.09 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 1.16 |