← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Tue, Jan 13, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Matthias Jollenbeck, Germany
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 55% | 59% | 1.81 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.33 | fair |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 22% | 18% | 4.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| VfB Stuttgart −0.75 | 50% | 2.05 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt −0.75 | 50% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 63% | 62% | 1.58 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 38% | 2.75 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 12 |
| 11 | On target | 5 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand