← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Jan 11, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Reichel, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 85% | 88% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 9% | 11.00 | fair |
| Wolfsburg win | 5% | 4% | 19.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München −2.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Wolfsburg −2.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 78% | 72% | 1.22 | fair |
| Under | 22% | 28% | 4.33 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ (og) | Kilian Fischer · FC Bayern München |
| 13' | ⚽ | Dženan Pejčinović · Wolfsburg |
| 30' | ⚽ | Luis Díaz · FC Bayern München |
| 45' | 🟨 | Mattias Svanberg · Wolfsburg |
| 50' | ⚽ | Michael Olise · FC Bayern München |
| 53' | ⚽ (og) | Moritz Jenz · FC Bayern München |
| 68' | ⚽ | Raphaël Guerreiro · FC Bayern München |
| 69' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · FC Bayern München |
| 76' | ⚽ | Michael Olise · FC Bayern München |
| 88' | ⚽ | Leon Goretzka · FC Bayern München |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
| 10 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 6 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.59 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.51 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 559.00 | 163.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | 2.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.44 |
| elo | 2084.73 | 1681.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.56 | 21.18 |
| eye test v1 | 2.07 | 0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.54 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.40 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.67 |
| league points | 41.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.60 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 21.00 | 22.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.73 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 12.60 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 21.40 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 2.84 | 0.07 |
| solidity v1 | 0.75 | -0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.10 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 27.13 | 25.62 |
| state index | 2.18 | 0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.53 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 1.79 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 3.09 | 1.64 |