← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 10, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Felix Zwayer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 44% | 47% | 2.23 | value: +6% |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 31% | 26% | 3.19 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| VfB Stuttgart −0.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 68% | 1.65 | value: +12% |
| Under | 41% | 32% | 2.32 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Jamie Leweling · VfB Stuttgart |
| 29' | ⚽ (pen) | Maximilian Mittelstädt · VfB Stuttgart |
| 38' | 🟨 | Mark Flekken · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 38' | 🟨 | Jamie Leweling · VfB Stuttgart |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jamie Leweling · VfB Stuttgart |
| 45' | ⚽ | Deniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart |
| 66' | ⚽ (pen) | Alejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 70' | 🟨 | Loïc Badé · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 77' | 🟨 | Finn Jeltsch · VfB Stuttgart |
| 78' | 🟨 | Alejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 0 | Half-time score | 4 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | BayArena |
| 80' | 🟨 | Aleix García · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 374.00 | 1015.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.84 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1871.28 | 1762.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.11 | -2.50 |
| eye test v1 | 0.75 | 0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.62 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.76 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.67 |
| league points | 29.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.40 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.80 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 21.00 | 21.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.93 | 1.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.33 | 0.78 |
| solidity v1 | -0.16 | 0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 27.73 | 25.30 |
| state index | 0.93 | 0.75 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.70 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 1.22 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.69 | 1.52 |