← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 10, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Timo Gerach, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 53% | 55% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.67 | fair |
| Hamburger SV win | 20% | 20% | 4.82 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV −0.75 | 53% | 1.87 |
| SC Freiburg −0.75 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 56% | 1.93 | value: +8% |
| Under | 50% | 44% | 1.97 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Daniel Elfadli · Hamburger SV |
| 39' | 🟨 | Philipp Treu · SC Freiburg |
| 43' | 🟨 | Philipp Lienhart · SC Freiburg |
| 48' | ⚽ | Luka Vušković · Hamburger SV |
| 51' | 🟨 | Daniel Elfadli · Hamburger SV |
| 51' | 🟥 | Daniel Elfadli · Hamburger SV |
| 53' | ⚽ (pen) | Vincenzo Grifo · SC Freiburg |
| 63' | 🟨 | Luka Vušković · Hamburger SV |
| 77' | 🟨 | Daniel Heuer Fernandes · Hamburger SV |
| 83' | ⚽ | Igor Matanović · SC Freiburg |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 0 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Europa-Park-Stadion |
| 90' |
| 🟨 |
| Patrick Osterhage · SC Freiburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 558.00 | 435.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 2.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1727.99 | 1576.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.58 | 9.29 |
| eye test v1 | 1.48 | -0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.61 |
| league points | 20.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.20 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 21.00 | 21.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.67 | -0.25 |
| solidity v1 | 0.63 | 0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| state index | 1.07 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.04 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 1.21 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.65 | 1.16 |