← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 20, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Sascha Stegemann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 40% | 28% | 2.48 | fair |
| SC Freiburg win | 33% | 43% | 2.96 | value: +29% |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg +0 | 55% | 1.79 |
| SC Freiburg +0 | 45% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 48% | 1.88 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 52% | 2.03 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Philipp Treu · SC Freiburg |
| 13' | ⚽ | Dženan Pejčinović · Wolfsburg |
| 49' | ⚽ | Dženan Pejčinović · Wolfsburg |
| 56' | ⚽ (pen) | Vincenzo Grifo · SC Freiburg |
| 69' | ⚽ | Dženan Pejčinović · Wolfsburg |
| 71' | ⚽ (og) | Jenson Seelt · SC Freiburg |
| 78' | ⚽ | Derry Scherhant · SC Freiburg |
| 82' | 🟨 | Maximilian Arnold · Wolfsburg |
| 83' | 🟨 | Anthony Jung · SC Freiburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| coach days |
| 141.00 |
| 537.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1626.34 | 1718.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.20 | 9.26 |
| eye test v1 | 0.47 | 1.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.66 |
| league points | 15.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 60.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.28 | 1.27 |
| solidity v1 | -0.17 | 0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 26.01 | — |
| state index | 0.19 | 0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 0.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 2.12 |