← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 20, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Stieler, Germany
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 39% | 38% | 2.52 | fair |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 33% | 33% | 2.95 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.50 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Hamburger SV +0 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt +0 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 52% | 57% | 1.90 | value: +9% |
| Under | 48% | 43% | 2.01 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand