← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 20, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Welz, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 42% | 44% | 2.33 | value: +4% |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 30% | 27% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.53 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| FC Augsburg −0.25 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 54% | 1.84 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 46% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Dimitrios Giannoulis · FC Augsburg |
| 45' | 🟨 | Romano Schmid · SV Werder Bremen |
| 65' | 🟨 | Noahkai Banks · FC Augsburg |
| 74' | 🟨 | Amos Pieper · SV Werder Bremen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cedric Zesiger · FC Augsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Yukinari Sugawara · SV Werder Bremen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Senne Lynen · SV Werder Bremen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 0 |
| 6 | Corners | 11 |
| 10 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 353.00 | 141.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 3.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1657.68 | 1705.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.22 | -35.87 |
| eye test v1 | 0.25 | 0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.72 |
| league points | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.40 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.36 | 0.05 |
| solidity v1 | -0.35 | -1.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.68 | 25.61 |
| state index | 0.31 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.15 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.69 | 1.42 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 1.01 |