← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Dec 14, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Felix Zwayer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 48% | 41% | 2.01 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.60 | fair |
| SC Freiburg win | 25% | 31% | 3.95 | value: +24% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg +0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Borussia Dortmund +0.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 54% | 1.86 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 46% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Johan Manzambi · SC Freiburg |
| 11' | 🟨 | Yan Couto · Borussia Dortmund |
| 31' | ⚽ | Ramy Bensebaini · Borussia Dortmund |
| 53' | 🟥 | Jobe Bellingham · Borussia Dortmund |
| 72' | 🟨 | Maximilian Eggestein · SC Freiburg |
| 75' | ⚽ | Lucas Höler · SC Freiburg |
| 83' | 🟨 | Julian Ryerson · Borussia Dortmund |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lukas Kübler · SC Freiburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 0 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.56 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.20 |
| venue | Europa-Park-Stadion |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 531.00 | 316.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 4.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1776.25 | 1914.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.79 | 20.06 |
| eye test v1 | 0.67 | 0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 65.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| league points | 16.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 2.77 | 3.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 2.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.82 | 0.73 |
| solidity v1 | -0.16 | 0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.47 | 26.41 |
| state index | 0.78 | 1.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.97 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.93 | 1.98 |