← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Dec 7, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Sascha Stegemann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 40% | 44% | 2.45 | value: +8% |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 33% | 26% | 2.99 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.51 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen −0.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Hamburger SV −0.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 59% | 1.77 | value: +4% |
| Under | 45% | 41% | 2.15 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Jens Stage · SV Werder Bremen |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jens Stage · SV Werder Bremen |
| 56' | 🟨 | Luka Vušković · Hamburger SV |
| 62' | 🟨 | Keke Topp · SV Werder Bremen |
| 63' | ⚽ | Albert Sambi Lokonga · Hamburger SV |
| 69' | 🟨 | Marco Grüll · SV Werder Bremen |
| 74' | 🟨 | Marco Friedl · SV Werder Bremen |
| 75' | ⚽ | Luka Vušković · Hamburger SV |
| 78' | ⚽ | Justin Njinmah · SV Werder Bremen |
| 84' | ⚽ | Yussuf Poulsen · Hamburger SV |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.83 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| 90' |
| 🟨 |
| Nicolai Remberg · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | 🟨 | Romano Schmid · SV Werder Bremen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Karim Coulibaly · SV Werder Bremen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 401.00 | 128.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 3.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1572.94 | 1671.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.42 | 1.70 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.47 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.40 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.67 |
| league points | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.14 | 0.36 |
| solidity v1 | -0.26 | 0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.03 | 0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.51 | 1.12 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 1.08 |