← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 6, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Siebert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 54% | 54% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.10 | value: +3% |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 22% | 21% | 4.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt −0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| RB Leipzig −0.75 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 64% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 36% | 2.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Conrad Harder · RB Leipzig |
| 31' | ⚽ | Christoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig |
| 47' | ⚽ | Yan Diomande · RB Leipzig |
| 53' | 🟨 | David Raum · RB Leipzig |
| 55' | ⚽ | Yan Diomande · RB Leipzig |
| 62' | ⚽ (pen) | David Raum · RB Leipzig |
| 65' | ⚽ | Yan Diomande · RB Leipzig |
| 68' | 🟨 | Arthur Theate · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 85' | 🟨 | Nnamdi Collins · Eintracht Frankfurt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 0 |
| 9 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Red Bull Arena |
| 0.20 |
| coach days | 280.00 | 127.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 3.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1788.57 | 1745.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.26 | -6.90 |
| eye test v1 | 1.64 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.65 |
| league points | 26.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 7.92 | 6.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 2.17 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.89 | 0.15 |
| solidity v1 | 0.80 | -0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.89 | 26.83 |
| state index | 1.32 | 0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.50 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 1.59 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.94 | 1.19 |