← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 6, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Robert Schröder, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 48% | 43% | 2.04 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 31% | 3.51 | value: +8% |
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 25% | 26% | 3.95 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Wolfsburg −0.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 51% | 1.93 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 49% | 1.97 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Patrick Wimmer · Wolfsburg |
| 22' | 🟨 | Saël Kumbedi · Wolfsburg |
| 30' | ⚽ | Mohamed Amoura · Wolfsburg |
| 45' | 🟨 | Christian Eriksen · Wolfsburg |
| 59' | ⚽ | Lovro Majer · Wolfsburg |
| 68' | ⚽ | Stanley N'Soki · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 74' | 🟨 | Lovro Majer · Wolfsburg |
| 79' | 🟨 | Oliver Burke · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 89' | 🟨 | Konstantinos Koulierakis · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 21 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 0 | Corners | 11 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | 1. FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 127.00 | 370.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1594.69 | 1601.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.34 | -2.70 |
| eye test v1 | 0.24 | -0.90 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.46 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | — |
| league points | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 70.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 37.80 |
| rest days | 5.92 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.35 | -1.40 |
| solidity v1 | -0.50 | 0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 25.96 | — |
| state index | -0.38 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.54 | -1.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.63 | 0.97 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 0.81 |