β Bundesliga 2025-26 Β· Sat, Dec 6, 02:30 PM UTC Β· ref: Sven Jablonski, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 46% | 48% | 2.17 | value: +3% |
| FC Augsburg win | 28% | 28% | 3.57 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.70 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen +0.25 | 53% | 1.88 |
| FC Augsburg +0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 65% | 1.74 | value: +13% |
| Under | 44% | 35% | 2.21 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | β½ | Dimitrios Giannoulis Β· FC Augsburg |
| 10' | π¨ | Noahkai Banks Β· FC Augsburg |
| 17' | π¨ | Anton Kade Β· FC Augsburg |
| 28' | β½ | Anton Kade Β· FC Augsburg |
| 71' | π¨ | Edmond Tapsoba Β· Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 77' | π¨ | Kristijan JakiΔ Β· FC Augsburg |
| 77' | π¨ | Nathan Tella Β· Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 78' | π¨ | Jarell Quansah Β· Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 90' | π¨ | Samuel Essende Β· FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 20 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 6 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| 0.80 |
| coach days | 339.00 | 339.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 3.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1575.16 | 1881.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.60 | 28.00 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.48 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| league points | 10.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 89.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.26 | 1.06 |
| solidity v1 | -0.95 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | β | 27.12 |
| state index | -0.42 | 1.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.73 | 1.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.78 | 1.33 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 1.30 |