← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 29, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Bastian Dankert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 44% | 45% | 2.25 | fair |
| 1. FC Köln win | 31% | 29% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.83 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen −0.25 | 50% | 1.98 |
| 1. FC Köln −0.25 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 61% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 39% | 2.55 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Marco Friedl · SV Werder Bremen |
| 39' | 🟨 | Alessio Castro-Montes · 1. FC Köln |
| 75' | 🟨 | Niklas Stark · SV Werder Bremen |
| 75' | 🟨 | Jan Thielmann · 1. FC Köln |
| 78' | 🟨 | Eric Martel · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Niklas Stark · SV Werder Bremen |
| 90' | 🟥 | Niklas Stark · SV Werder Bremen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marius Bülter · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | ⚽ | Said El Mala · 1. FC Köln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 0 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Werder Bremen | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Weserstadion |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 120.00 | 212.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.60 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1675.40 | 1588.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.36 | -11.12 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 50.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| league points | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| solidity v1 | -0.95 | -1.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | — | 25.50 |
| state index | 0.51 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.59 | 1.78 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 1.63 |