← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 29, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Patrick Ittrich, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 61% | 62% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 19% | 4.09 | fair |
| Heidenheim win | 15% | 19% | 6.63 | value: +27% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heidenheim −1 | 52% | 1.93 |
| 1. FC Union Berlin −1 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 52% | 1.81 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 48% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Oliver Burke · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 43' | ⚽ | Rani Khedira · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 46' | 🟨 | Benedikt Gimber · Heidenheim |
| 66' | 🟨 | Stefan Schimmer · Heidenheim |
| 72' | 🟨 | Aljoscha Kemlein · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 75' | 🟨 | Rani Khedira · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 90' | ⚽ | Stefan Schimmer · Heidenheim |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jan Schöppner · Heidenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Union Berlin | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadion An der Alten Försterei |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 363.00 | 6664.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 4.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1679.82 | 1568.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.98 | -21.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 49.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.61 |
| league points | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.60 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 5.92 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 0.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.39 | -0.57 |
| solidity v1 | 0.87 | -1.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.41 | 27.39 |
| state index | 0.60 | -0.96 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.62 | -0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 2.03 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.86 | 1.13 |