← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 22, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Brand, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 53% | 57% | 1.83 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 3.93 | fair |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 22% | 19% | 4.38 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart −0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Borussia Dortmund −0.75 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 63% | 1.61 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 37% | 2.39 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Finn Jeltsch · VfB Stuttgart |
| 34' | ⚽ (pen) | Emre Can · Borussia Dortmund |
| 41' | ⚽ | Maximilian Beier · Borussia Dortmund |
| 47' | ⚽ | Deniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart |
| 71' | ⚽ | Deniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart |
| 81' | 🟨 | Maximilian Beier · Borussia Dortmund |
| 89' | ⚽ | Karim Adeyemi · Borussia Dortmund |
| 90' | ⚽ | Deniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 16 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | Signal Iduna Park |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 294.00 | 966.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.40 | 2.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1894.61 | 1810.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.55 | 7.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | 0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.42 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.50 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.78 |
| league points | 21.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 59.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 12.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.10 | 2.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.44 | 1.02 |
| solidity v1 | 0.06 | -0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.94 | 25.46 |
| state index | 1.08 | 0.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | 0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 1.63 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 1.70 |