← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 22, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Robin Braun, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 38% | 38% | 2.53 | fair |
| Hamburger SV win | 34% | 33% | 2.91 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.46 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg +0 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Hamburger SV +0 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 58% | 1.82 | value: +5% |
| Under | 47% | 42% | 2.09 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Keven Schlotterbeck · FC Augsburg |
| 38' | 🟨 | Nicolás Capaldo · Hamburger SV |
| 61' | 🟨 | Nicolai Remberg · Hamburger SV |
| 76' | ⚽ | Anton Kade · FC Augsburg |
| 81' | 🟨 | Keven Schlotterbeck · FC Augsburg |
| 81' | 🟥 | Keven Schlotterbeck · FC Augsburg |
| 85' | 🟨 | Luka Vušković · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| coach days | 325.00 | 386.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 3.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1578.03 | 1566.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.65 | -0.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | 0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 64.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.67 |
| league points | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 12.92 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.31 | 0.28 |
| solidity v1 | -0.37 | -0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.33 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 1.37 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 1.57 |