β Bundesliga 2025-26 Β· Fri, Nov 21, 07:30 PM UTC Β· ref: Sascha Stegemann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 38% | 45% | 2.54 | value: +13% |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 35% | 27% | 2.83 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.56 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 +0 | 53% | 1.86 |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim +0 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 58% | 1.71 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 42% | 2.22 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | β½ (og) | Andreas Hanche-Olsen Β· TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 24' | π¨ | Silvan Widmer Β· 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 42' | π¨ | Bernardo Β· TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 68' | π¨ | Robin HranΓ‘Δ Β· TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 76' | β½ | Danny da Costa Β· 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 88' | π₯ | Dominik Kohr Β· 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 90' | π¨ | Phillipp Mwene Β· 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 90' | π¨ | Nadiem Amiri Β· 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 19 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Mewa Arena |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 143.00 | 385.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1669.19 | 1663.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.82 | 46.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.20 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | β |
| league points | 5.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 12.04 | 13.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.29 | 0.68 |
| solidity v1 | 0.42 | 0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.30 | 25.81 |
| state index | 0.17 | 1.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.28 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 1.78 |