← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 9, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Harm Osmers, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 62% | 60% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 22% | 4.63 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 17% | 19% | 6.08 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart −1 | 52% | 1.88 |
| FC Augsburg −1 | 48% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 60% | 1.52 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 40% | 2.63 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Fabian Rieder · FC Augsburg |
| 17' | 🟨 | Keven Schlotterbeck · FC Augsburg |
| 18' | ⚽ (pen) | Maximilian Mittelstädt · VfB Stuttgart |
| 26' | ⚽ | Han-Noah Massengo · FC Augsburg |
| 39' | ⚽ | Deniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart |
| 50' | 🟨 | Chrislain Matsima · FC Augsburg |
| 68' | 🟨 | Lorenz Assignon · VfB Stuttgart |
| 74' | 🟨 | Dimitrios Giannoulis · FC Augsburg |
| 80' | ⚽ | Deniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart |
| 85' | 🟨 | Nikolas Nartey · VfB Stuttgart |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | MHPArena |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 953.00 | 312.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1805.92 | 1646.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.92 | -14.29 |
| eye test v1 | 0.57 | -0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.57 |
| league points | 18.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 2.85 | 8.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.95 | -0.20 |
| solidity v1 | -0.05 | -0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 24.89 | 25.43 |
| state index | 1.17 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.73 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 1.22 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.61 | 1.04 |