← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 2, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Schlager, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 39% | 39% | 2.49 | fair |
| Hamburger SV win | 35% | 32% | 2.84 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.70 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln +0 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Hamburger SV +0 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 62% | 1.58 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 38% | 2.48 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Nicolai Remberg · Hamburger SV |
| 25' | ⚽ | Ragnar Ache · 1. FC Köln |
| 48' | ⚽ | Florian Kainz · 1. FC Köln |
| 61' | ⚽ | Jean-Luc Dompé · Hamburger SV |
| 74' | 🟨 | Fábio Vieira · Hamburger SV |
| 78' | 🟨 | Marius Bülter · 1. FC Köln |
| 78' | 🟨 | Immanuel Pherai · Hamburger SV |
| 79' | 🟨 | Yussuf Poulsen · Hamburger SV |
| 79' | 🟨 | Immanuel Pherai · Hamburger SV |
| 79' | 🟥 | Immanuel Pherai · Hamburger SV |
| 83' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 11 |
| 10 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | RheinEnergieStadion |
| 🟨 |
| Fábio Vieira · Hamburger SV |
| 83' | 🟥 | Fábio Vieira · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | ⚽ | Said El Mala · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jakub Kamiński · 1. FC Köln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 185.00 | 366.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.05 | 3.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1594.70 | 1575.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.83 | 17.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.76 | 1.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.79 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.40 | 63.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 2.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.69 |
| league points | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 7.92 | 8.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | 7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 19.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.43 | 0.77 |
| solidity v1 | -1.01 | 0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 25.50 | — |
| state index | -0.06 | 0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | -0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.86 | 1.29 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 1.93 |