← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 1, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Christian Dingert, Germany
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 52% | 61% | 1.88 | value: +14% |
| Heidenheim win | 24% | 22% | 4.10 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 17% | 4.14 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Heidenheim +0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt +0.75 | 47% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 63% | 63% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 37% | 2.67 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand