← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 26, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Felix Zwayer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 45% | 56% | 2.16 | value: +20% |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 28% | 21% | 3.44 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.63 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 −0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 56% | 1.74 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 44% | 2.19 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | ⚽ (pen) | Nadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Pascal Stenzel · VfB Stuttgart |
| 45' | ⚽ | Chris Führich · VfB Stuttgart |
| 59' | 🟨 | Phillipp Mwene · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 63' | 🟨 | Dominik Kohr · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 65' | 🟨 | Finn Jeltsch · VfB Stuttgart |
| 77' | 🟨 | Lorenz Assignon · VfB Stuttgart |
| 79' | ⚽ | Deniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tiago Tomás · VfB Stuttgart |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 13 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | MHPArena |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 939.00 | 117.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1733.86 | 1673.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.80 | -27.41 |
| eye test v1 | 0.68 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 48.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.60 |
| league points | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.00 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 2.99 | 2.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.14 | 0.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.17 | 0.28 |
| solidity v1 | 0.52 | -0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 24.39 | 26.30 |
| state index | 0.95 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.64 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.42 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.66 | 1.40 |