← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 25, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Siebert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 46% | 46% | 2.12 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 29% | 29% | 3.41 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.81 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig +0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| FC Augsburg +0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 65% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 35% | 2.58 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Yan Diomande · RB Leipzig |
| 18' | ⚽ | Rômulo · RB Leipzig |
| 22' | ⚽ | Antonio Nusa · RB Leipzig |
| 24' | 🟨 | Alexis Claude-Maurice · FC Augsburg |
| 28' | 🟨 | Noahkai Banks · FC Augsburg |
| 38' | ⚽ | Christoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig |
| 56' | ⚽ | Assan Ouédraogo · RB Leipzig |
| 65' | ⚽ | Castello Lukeba · RB Leipzig |
| 89' | 🟨 | Aiman Dardari · FC Augsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Xaver Schlager · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 4 |
| 15 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| coach days | 297.00 | 238.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.70 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1601.76 | 1777.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.34 | 32.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | 0.63 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.69 |
| league points | 7.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.10 | 0.52 |
| solidity v1 | -0.35 | 0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | — | 26.96 |
| state index | -0.21 | 1.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.23 | -0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.49 | 1.61 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 1.93 |