← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 18, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: Patrick Ittrich, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 39% | 36% | 2.55 | fair |
| Heidenheim win | 34% | 34% | 3.08 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.60 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen +0 | 54% | 1.88 |
| Heidenheim +0 | 46% | 2.26 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 56% | 1.72 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 44% | 2.23 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Tim Siersleben · Heidenheim |
| 34' | 🟨 | Cameron Puertas · SV Werder Bremen |
| 45' | 🟨 | Patrice Čović · SV Werder Bremen |
| 50' | ⚽ | Marco Grüll · SV Werder Bremen |
| 67' | ⚽ | Stefan Schimmer · Heidenheim |
| 69' | ⚽ | Jens Stage · SV Werder Bremen |
| 83' | 🟨 | Leonardo Bittencourt · SV Werder Bremen |
| 83' | ⚽ | Jonas Föhrenbach · Heidenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 31 | Shots | 11 |
| 11 | On target | 4 |
| 12 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heidenheim | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Voith-Arena |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 6622.00 | 78.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.17 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1529.21 | 1672.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.65 | 2.36 |
| eye test v1 | -0.49 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 65.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.63 |
| league points | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.80 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.85 | 0.30 |
| solidity v1 | -1.04 | -1.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.45 | 0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.58 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.83 | 2.04 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.63 |