← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 5, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Robert Hartmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 44% | 33% | 2.21 | fair |
| Hamburger SV win | 30% | 36% | 3.21 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 26% | 31% | 3.77 | value: +17% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 +0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Hamburger SV +0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 56% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 44% | 2.54 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Albert Sambi Lokonga · Hamburger SV |
| 10' | ⚽ | Rayan Philippe · Hamburger SV |
| 17' | 🟨 | Daniel Elfadli · Hamburger SV |
| 42' | 🟨 | Jae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Dominik Kohr · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 52' | ⚽ | Jean-Luc Dompé · Hamburger SV |
| 61' | ⚽ | Rayan Philippe · Hamburger SV |
| 65' | 🟨 | Nicolai Remberg · Hamburger SV |
| 65' | 🟨 | Nadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 338.00 | 96.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1567.87 | 1697.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.40 | 3.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 48.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.64 |
| league points | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 6.92 | 2.95 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.03 | 0.17 |
| solidity v1 | -1.22 | 0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| squad age | — | 26.30 |
| state index | -0.23 | 0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.89 | 1.04 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.95 | 1.49 |