← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 5, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Stieler, Germany
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 69% | 71% | 1.41 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 18% | 5.33 | fair |
| Heidenheim win | 13% | 11% | 7.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Heidenheim −1.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| VfB Stuttgart −1.5 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 65% | 67% | 1.48 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 33% | 2.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 1 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand