← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Sep 28, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Matthias Jollenbeck, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 38% | 38% | 2.61 | fair |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 36% | 34% | 2.66 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.72 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln +0 | 51% | 1.94 |
| VfB Stuttgart +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 65% | 1.56 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 35% | 2.63 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Jakub Kamiński · 1. FC Köln |
| 28' | ⚽ (pen) | Ermedin Demirovic · VfB Stuttgart |
| 67' | 🟨 | Joel Schmied · 1. FC Köln |
| 76' | 🟨 | Tom Krauß · 1. FC Köln |
| 78' | 🟨 | Luca Jaquez · VfB Stuttgart |
| 81' | ⚽ | Josha Vagnoman · VfB Stuttgart |
| 90' | 🟨 | Badredine Bouanani · VfB Stuttgart |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | RheinEnergieStadion |
| coach days | 150.00 | 911.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 3.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1594.73 | 1731.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 41.51 | -8.66 |
| eye test v1 | 0.83 | 0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.80 | 50.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.68 |
| league points | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 87.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 58.60 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 2.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.37 | 1.01 |
| solidity v1 | -0.34 | 0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 25.50 | 24.68 |
| state index | 0.72 | 0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.87 | 0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.64 | 1.04 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.82 | 1.35 |