← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 27, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: Martin Petersen, Germany
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 42% | 42% | 2.38 | fair |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 30% | 27% | 3.37 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.54 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen +0 | 58% | 1.68 |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 +0 | 42% | 2.46 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 51% | 52% | 1.95 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 48% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 13 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand