← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Sep 21, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Felix Zwayer, Germany
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 63% | 62% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 19% | 4.50 | fair |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 16% | 19% | 6.25 | value: +21% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen −1 | 52% | 1.92 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach −1 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 60% | 70% | 1.62 | value: +13% |
| Under | 40% | 30% | 2.38 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 9 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand