β Bundesliga 2025-26 Β· Sun, Sep 21, 01:30 PM UTC Β· ref: Sven Jablonski, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 58% | 66% | 1.65 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 22% | 19% | 4.38 | fair |
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 20% | 15% | 5.03 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin β1 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt β1 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 63% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 37% | 2.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | β½ | Ilyas Ansah Β· 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 32' | β½ | Oliver Burke Β· 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 45' | β½ | Nathaniel Brown Β· Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 53' | β½ | Oliver Burke Β· 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 56' | β½ | Oliver Burke Β· 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 63' | π¨ | Ritsu Doan Β· Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 80' | β½ | Can Uzun Β· Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 87' | π¨ | Leopold Querfeld Β· 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 87' | β½ (pen) | Jonathan Burkardt Β· Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 88' | π¨ | Nnamdi Collins Β· Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 11 |
| 10 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1. FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Deutsche Bank Park |
| 90' | π¨ | Arthur Theate Β· Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 90' | π¨ | Andrej IliΔ Β· 1. FC Union Berlin |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 51.00 | 294.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1860.55 | 1646.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 46.86 | -22.27 |
| eye test v1 | 0.40 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.61 |
| league points | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 37.80 |
| rest days | 2.77 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | β |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.13 | -0.93 |
| solidity v1 | 0.03 | -1.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 24.47 | 27.91 |
| state index | 1.45 | -0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | -1.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.16 | 1.96 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.64 | 1.07 |