← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 20, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: Timo Gerach, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 40% | 39% | 2.51 | fair |
| SC Freiburg win | 34% | 34% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.68 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg −0.25 | 54% | 1.80 |
| SV Werder Bremen −0.25 | 46% | 2.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 63% | 1.73 | value: +8% |
| Under | 43% | 37% | 2.38 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ (pen) | Vincenzo Grifo · SC Freiburg |
| 35' | 🟨 | Jan-Niklas Beste · SC Freiburg |
| 36' | 🟨 | Cameron Puertas · SV Werder Bremen |
| 48' | 🟨 | Jens Stage · SV Werder Bremen |
| 49' | 🟨 | Marco Grüll · SV Werder Bremen |
| 54' | ⚽ | Junior Adamu · SC Freiburg |
| 71' | 🟨 | Felix Agu · SV Werder Bremen |
| 75' | ⚽ (og) | Karim Coulibaly · SC Freiburg |
| 81' | 🟨 | Lukas Kübler · SC Freiburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Victor Okoh Boniface · SV Werder Bremen |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 0 |
| 13 | Fouls | 7 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Werder Bremen | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Weserstadion |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 50.00 | 446.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 1.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1692.11 | 1659.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.86 | -30.99 |
| eye test v1 | 0.95 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.80 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.62 |
| league points | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 5.92 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.61 | 0.32 |
| solidity v1 | -0.81 | -0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.76 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.93 | 1.40 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.90 | 1.47 |