← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 20, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: Robert Hartmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 71% | 75% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 14% | 6.37 | fair |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 12% | 10% | 8.29 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München +1.5 | 51% | 1.98 |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim +1.5 | 49% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 72% | 61% | 1.33 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 39% | 3.45 | value: +34% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Vladimír Coufal · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 12' | 🟨 | Luis Díaz · FC Bayern München |
| 29' | 🟨 | Leon Goretzka · FC Bayern München |
| 44' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · FC Bayern München |
| 48' | ⚽ (pen) | Harry Kane · FC Bayern München |
| 77' | ⚽ (pen) | Harry Kane · FC Bayern München |
| 82' | ⚽ | Vladimír Coufal · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 90' | ⚽ | Serge Gnabry · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 18 |
| 4 | On target | 10 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.56 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | PreZero Arena |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 323.00 | 446.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 1.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1682.80 | 2029.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.53 | 32.26 |
| eye test v1 | 0.43 | 1.99 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 3.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.77 |
| league points | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 89.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 63.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 2.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.60 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 19.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.08 | 2.00 |
| solidity v1 | -0.65 | 1.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 8.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 8.40 |
| squad age | 26.53 | 28.94 |
| state index | 0.25 | 2.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | 0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 0.55 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 2.40 |