← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 20, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: Florian Exner, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 53% | 42% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 35% | 3.90 | value: +38% |
| Heidenheim win | 22% | 23% | 4.50 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heidenheim −0.75 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Hamburger SV −0.75 | 47% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 47% | 1.68 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 53% | 2.29 | value: +21% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Daniel Elfadli · Hamburger SV |
| 42' | ⚽ | Luka Vušković · Hamburger SV |
| 56' | 🟨 | Rayan Philippe · Hamburger SV |
| 59' | ⚽ | Rayan Philippe · Hamburger SV |
| 63' | 🟨 | Fábio Vieira · Hamburger SV |
| 72' | 🟨 | Nicolai Remberg · Hamburger SV |
| 79' | 🟨 | Adam Kölle · Heidenheim |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daniel Heuer Fernandes · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | ⚽ | Adam Kölle · Heidenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 20 |
| 9 | On target | 8 |
| 1 | Corners | 12 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| coach days | 323.00 | 6594.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 1.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1557.71 | 1530.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.40 | -19.83 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.90 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 49.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.94 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.71 |
| league points | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 6.88 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.33 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.47 | -0.54 |
| solidity v1 | -1.08 | -1.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.46 | -0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.12 | -0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.69 | 2.02 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.97 |