← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 13, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: Bastian Dankert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 49% | 46% | 1.97 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.71 | value: +4% |
| 1. FC Köln win | 25% | 26% | 3.97 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln −0.5 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Wolfsburg −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 57% | 1.76 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 43% | 2.17 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Ron-Robert Zieler · 1. FC Köln |
| 5' | ⚽ | Luca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln |
| 42' | ⚽ | Mohamed Amoura · Wolfsburg |
| 65' | ⚽ | Lovro Majer · Wolfsburg |
| 68' | 🟨 | Lovro Majer · Wolfsburg |
| 72' | 🟨 | Joel Schmied · 1. FC Köln |
| 84' | 🟨 | Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson · 1. FC Köln |
| 86' | 🟨 | Kamil Grabara · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | ⚽ | Maximilian Arnold · Wolfsburg |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 8 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| ⚽ |
| Jakub Kamiński · 1. FC Köln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 43.00 | 135.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1646.99 | 1598.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.14 | 46.11 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | 0.97 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.83 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 12.83 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 19.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.08 | 0.69 |
| solidity v1 | -0.11 | 0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.14 | 25.50 |
| state index | 0.22 | 1.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | -0.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.48 | 1.17 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 1.98 |