← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Aug 31, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: Sören Storks, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 45% | 44% | 2.15 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 29% | 25% | 3.51 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 31% | 3.65 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg −0.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 −0.25 | 48% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 56% | 1.79 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 44% | 2.13 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Aaron Zehnter · Wolfsburg |
| 40' | 🟨 | Danny da Costa · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 42' | 🟨 | Robin Zentner · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 49' | 🟨 | Andreas Hanche-Olsen · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 60' | 🟨 | Patrick Wimmer · Wolfsburg |
| 86' | 🟨 | Anthony Caci · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 89' | ⚽ (pen) | Nadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mattias Svanberg · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mattias Svanberg · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟥 | Mattias Svanberg · Wolfsburg |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 10 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| 90' |
| 🟨 |
| Armindo Sieb · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0.60 |
| coach days | 30.00 | 61.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 1.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1712.93 | 1754.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.45 | -5.84 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | 0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.61 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 46.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 2.77 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.03 | 0.42 |
| solidity v1 | -0.03 | 0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 25.18 | 28.91 |
| state index | 0.30 | 0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | -0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 1.19 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 1.64 |