← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 30, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Florian Exner, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 74% | 69% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 17% | 6.20 | value: +8% |
| FC Augsburg win | 10% | 14% | 9.65 | value: +32% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg +1.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| FC Bayern München +1.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 67% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 33% | 2.87 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Cedric Zesiger · FC Augsburg |
| 28' | ⚽ | Serge Gnabry · FC Bayern München |
| 31' | 🟨 | Jeffrey Gouweleeuw · FC Augsburg |
| 45' | ⚽ | Luis Díaz · FC Bayern München |
| 48' | ⚽ | Michael Olise · FC Bayern München |
| 53' | ⚽ | Kristijan Jakić · FC Augsburg |
| 59' | 🟨 | Michael Olise · FC Bayern München |
| 59' | 🟨 | Konrad Laimer · FC Bayern München |
| 76' | ⚽ | Mert Kömür · FC Augsburg |
| 85' | 🟨 | Keven Schlotterbeck · FC Augsburg |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 20 |
| 3 | On target | 10 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| 90' |
| 🟨 |
| Sacha Boey · FC Bayern München |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luis Díaz · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 241.00 | 425.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | 3.09 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1690.98 | 2011.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.38 | 20.69 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | 1.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 3.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.81 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 89.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 62.80 |
| rest days | 7.13 | 7.92 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 18.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.35 | 1.53 |
| solidity v1 | -1.51 | 1.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 7.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 27.15 | 28.86 |
| state index | -0.11 | 2.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | 0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.11 | 0.81 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.49 | 1.67 |