← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 30, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: Robin Braun, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 49% | 53% | 2.00 | value: +6% |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 27% | 21% | 3.60 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.90 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen +0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen +0.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 62% | 1.49 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 38% | 2.75 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Patrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 35' | ⚽ | Malik Tillman · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 37' | 🟨 | Senne Lynen · SV Werder Bremen |
| 44' | ⚽ (pen) | Romano Schmid · SV Werder Bremen |
| 45' | 🟨 | Niklas Stark · SV Werder Bremen |
| 57' | 🟨 | Christian Kofane · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 63' | 🟨 | Niklas Stark · SV Werder Bremen |
| 63' | 🟥 | Niklas Stark · SV Werder Bremen |
| 64' | ⚽ (pen) | Patrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 70' | 🟨 | Nathan Tella · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Werder Bremen | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Weserstadion |
| 76' | ⚽ | Isaac Schmidt · SV Werder Bremen |
| 86' | 🟨 | Jarell Quansah · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Isaac Schmidt · SV Werder Bremen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Karim Coulibaly · SV Werder Bremen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 29.00 | 241.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.85 | 3.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1669.69 | 1868.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.78 | -44.25 |
| eye test v1 | 0.48 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 71.00 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 59.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.56 | 0.67 |
| solidity v1 | -0.72 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | — | 26.66 |
| state index | 0.43 | 0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | 1.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.63 | 1.24 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.51 | 1.06 |