← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 30, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: Frank Willenborg, Germany
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 64% | 69% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 19% | 4.96 | fair |
| Heidenheim win | 16% | 12% | 6.28 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Heidenheim −1.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| RB Leipzig −1.25 | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 66% | 61% | 1.51 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 39% | 3.00 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand